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Last update: 2013-05-15

Ranking Canada's Regions - May 16, 2013

2013-05-15 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Export growth 2013-14: see how Canada's provinces stack up.…

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Look Up - Waaay Up (North) - May 9, 2013

2013-05-08 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

A golden moment for Canada's North.…

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From Pipe Dreams to Reality? - May 2, 2013

2013-05-01 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Can Canada get its vast oil production to market?…

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Gearing Up for Growth - April 25, 2013

2013-04-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 5s

Check out EDC Economics’ latest Global Export Forecast…

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The Power of Mo - April 18, 2013

2013-04-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Momentum: A credible tool, or a lazy pundit’s default?…

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Still A Global Breadbasket - April 11, 2013

2013-04-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Have we talked ourselves in to low growth? Not yet……

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Psyched Out? - April 4, 2013

2013-04-03 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Have we talked ourselves in to low growth? Not yet……

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Business Investment: Ready to Roll? - March 28, 2013

2013-03-27 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

There’s plenty of growth potential in business investment. …

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What’s Asia’s Bellwether Economy Saying? - March 14, 2013

2013-03-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Just when the Western World was worried about a serious double-dip recession, the unthinkable happened: Asia faltered. Rewind quickly to mid-2012, and the indicators for fast-growing behemoths China and India were tumbling, and with them, the fortunes of the region and global confidence. Since then, pundits have been on high alert for signs of further decay. Is Singapore’s economy, a noted regional bellwether, giving any clues?…

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Copper Conundrum - March 21, 2013

2013-03-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Copper is not a rare mineral, but it has a rare property: foresight. Pundits have often turned to the price of the orange metal as a reliable indicator of near-term economic direction. Conflicting signals of the economy's current path are confusing many. Are copper prices shedding any light on the issue?…

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What’s Asia’s Bellwether Economy Saying? - March 14, 2013

2013-03-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Just when the Western World was worried about a serious double-dip recession, the unthinkable happened: Asia faltered. Rewind quickly to mid-2012, and the indicators for fast-growing behemoths China and India were tumbling, and with them, the fortunes of the region and global confidence. Since then, pundits have been on high alert for signs of further decay. Is Singapore’s economy, a noted regional bellwether, giving any clues?…

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Wood Someone Check These Prices? - March 7, 2013

2013-03-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Commodity prices have scored high on the economic shock-talk scale in the past decade. Although prices are generally still riding high, the recent trend has been downward. Energy, base metal and even food prices are down considerably from recent peak levels. We expect the trend to continue with the US recovery spreading overseas, as liquidity shifts from parked investments to plant and equipment – but are all commodities following the same pattern of decline?…

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Wood Someone Check These Prices? - March 7, 2013

2013-03-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Commodity prices have scored high on the economic shock-talk scale in the past decade. Although prices are generally still riding high, the recent trend has been downward. Energy, base metal and even food prices are down considerably from recent peak levels. We expect the trend to continue with the US recovery spreading overseas, as liquidity shifts from parked investments to plant and equipment – but are all commodities following the same pattern of decline?…

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Fast Facts on Trade in 2012 - February 28, 2013

2013-02-27 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Normally, this column is forward-looking, but occasionally, it pays to reflect on recent events. Annual merchandise trade data for 2012 are hot off the press, and analysts are still dissecting the details. Here are some key features of 2012, and reflections on their impact on Canada’s trade scene.…

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Swoony Loonie - February 21, 2013

2013-02-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Stable is not a word that can be used to describe much in today's economy. A notable exception is the Canadian dollar. The loonie has soared in a reasonably tight range around parity with the US dollar for 3 years now. Although exporters would prefer a lower level, the stability has made activity and cash flows somewhat more predictable. Now, the loonie is losing some loft; what's happening?…

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A Tale of Two Housing Markets - February 14, 2013

2013-02-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Few barometers of economic activity say as much as housing data. They usually give ample warning of recessions. Housing sales and construction activity is typically as good at predicting recovery. The prescience of these data speak to the deep linkages the housing sector has to the broader economy. As such, when these data shift in a big way, it pays to pay attention.…

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US GDP Data: Cause for Concern? - February 07, 2013

2013-02-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Uh-oh. Readers of this column know how much stock EDC Economics puts in the strength of the US economy. Last week’s preliminary glimpse at fourth quarter US GDP was a pretty icy shower, even for the pessimists. The consensus view was for a meagre 1.1% increase for the quarter. Instead, it rang in at -0.1%. Is this a major jolt to the 2013 forecast for the engine of the global economy, or is there a good explanation for the sudden about-face? (If so, it had better be a good one).…

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Is Business Taking Flight? - January 31, 2013

2013-01-30 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

I’m just back from my first international business trip of the year, a whirlwind 3-city tour of Mexico. I spend a lot of time in airports each year, and I’m always interested in how busy they are. After all, a busy airport and full planes should mean the economy is going well, right? Well, the airports and the airplanes looked packed to me, at all hours of the day, and on various routes. Even the front cabin was full – those hoping for an upgrade were generally disappointed But what do the stats say?…

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Mexico's Resilience - January 24, 2013

2013-01-23 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Few economies escaped the global slowdown in the summer of 2012. Mexico was a rare and notable exception. While marked deterioration in China, India and Brazil grabbed the headlines, Mexico quietly hummed along, generating remarkably smooth growth. For an economy so tied to US fortunes, that is quite an achievement. What is the secret of Mexico's success?…

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Is Business Growing? Ask the Buyers - January 17, 2013

2013-01-16 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Want a hot gauge of economic activity? It's probably best to go to the front lines. There are many indicators of economic activity, but they don't all tell the same story. Some are just telling us what's happening now. Others lag the economy - they are really good at repeating to us what we already know. But others lead activity - they give us a peek at the future. One of those is the purchasing managers' index, now collected for a wide array of countries. What are these 'buyers' telling us?…

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Outlook 2013: Let It Rise - January 10, 2013

2013-01-09 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Another New Year, and a chance for a fresh start. Will this prove to be the one that finally fires up the global economy? To answer, it's tempting to borrow from Berra - in many ways, it seems like 'deja vu all over again'. For three successive years, the world economy has started well, and then fizzled mid-year. Are we in for the same again, or is it different this time - can we genuinely say with firm hope, Happy New Year?…

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Surprise of the Year: Foiled Again! - December 20, 2012

2012-12-19 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Four years beyond the onset of recession, and what do we have to show for it? No conclusive recovery, deterioration in structural indicators, unprecedented pessimism and lots of volatility. In an environment like this, can we really be surprised anymore? Perhaps the great surprise of 2012 is our growing immunity to shocks, a melancholy diffidence wrought in multiple aborted economic rebounds.…

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Hidden Goldmine: The Diaspora in Canada - December 13, 2012

2012-12-12 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Growth potential is a key strategic measure for any economy. It can be measured in a number of ways, but the most popular among analysts is the supply-side measure. That’s the technical label for assessing future growth of the labour force, the capital stock and productivity – the three key building blocks of an economy. Demand for a nation’s goods and services can also determine future potential. In an increasingly global world, are there other measures of potential that should be considered?…

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Eurocrisis: Method in the Madness? - December 6, 2012

2012-12-05 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Good news is getting more airplay these days. It’s a great relief, following years of gloom, and this time, perception seems well-anchored in actual data. It’s doubly encouraging that economic improve-ment is occurring in spite of persistent nagging headwinds. However, it’s too early to dismiss the key risks the world faces – taking our eyes off them could be fatal.…

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No Jobs, No Housing Recovery, Right? Wrong! - November 29, 2012

2012-11-28 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Housing markets are on a tear south of the border. Against expectations, US housing starts surged to 894,000 units in October, up 42 per cent over last year’s number. Some believe this is the real thing, the leading edge of a true and sustainable recovery. Others aren’t persuaded, convinced that this is just another flash in the pan. Their reasoning? No jobs, no housing recovery. Are they right? …

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Emerging Market Currencies More Than Pocket Change - November 22, 2012

2012-11-21 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Mention exchange rates and most Canadians will immediately assume US dollars. With most of our trade still denominated in USD, the fixation is natural. Movements in the CAD/USD rate directly affect export revenues, cost structure, profit margins and competitiveness. Appreciation from a USD 0.63 in 2002 to 1.09 in 2007 was a massive challenge for exporters. One response to this development has been a shift toward non-traditional markets, and this is changing the exchange-rate conversation.…

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Careening Toward the Fiscal Cliff - November 15, 2012

2012-11-14 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It’s coming, and it’s big. The US economy is careening toward the so-called fiscal cliff at a frightening pace, and it’s creating a lot of concern. With the election now decided, will legislators seal a deal that allays these fears, or will political sclerosis drive America – and the world – to the precipice?…

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Food Prices Won’t Choke Global Growth - November 8, 2012

2012-11-07 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Volatile commodity prices have wreaked havoc with the world economy in the past decade. This summer saw yet another surge in food prices. It got many wondering whether this time around, the ill-timed increase would apply the brakes to an accelerating world economy. Are they right?…

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The Final Push? - November 1, 2012

2012-10-31 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Scrum! This rugby configuration is an apt description of the world economy in the past four years. Powerful, opposing forces have been locked together in an epic struggle between growth and decline, with neither side prevailing. Initially puzzled and confused by the lack of resolution, onlookers are now despondent, and becoming resigned to the deadlock as a new, permanent state of affairs. Are they right, or can we expect a final push – either toward some economic cliff, or to a new era of growth?…

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Asia Needs Global Trade Needs Asia - October 25, 2012

2012-10-23 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Weakness in the developing world has had an ugly recent effect: vibrant Asian economies wilted over the summer months, and now face a less certain path in the months ahead. Vaunted as a key engine of the world economy, Asian economic powerhouses are now contributing to the pervasive sense of global gloom. Will Asia self-start, or will re-ignition require a boost from another battery?…

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Austerity and Economic Potential - October 18, 2012

2012-10-16 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Among the top topics in the global economy’s four-year funk is public finance. First, it was about the fabulous stimulus programs – for size, synchronization and speed, spending like this had no historical peer. Not long after came what seemed like an ideological flip-flop, with virtually the same cast of world leaders preaching austerity. Now, number-crunchers are telling us that cutbacks will bleed the economy for long enough that trend growth will be permanently lower. Is that truly the future we face?…

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Is the Clean Tech Investment Boom Sustainable? - October 11, 2012

2012-10-09 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Dramatic economic developments have had to share the stage with a lot of prima donnas in the current economic cycle. Among them is the phenomenal surge of investment in clean technology. It has rapidly taken on an unusual ubiquity – the trend is evident across the regions of the world, in multiple creative forms, and is evident in both privately- and publicly-funded ventures. Clean tech spending is clearly enjoying a heyday – but will the good times last?…

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The Import of Productivity - October 4, 2012

2012-10-02 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Productivity growth is key to Canada’s future. It ranks as a top economic priority for business, government and indeed, the general public, as well it should. After all, together with the labour force and our national capital stock, it’s one of the three foundational economic pillars. Not one of them is in great shape – adding up their collective trend performance gives future growth of as little as 1.5 per cent. An about-face in productivity growth could change the picture for the better – but is it likely?…

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Would Anyone Mind A Little Inflation? - September 26, 2012

2012-09-25 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It’s a word that has destroyed currencies, brought down governments and ruined livelihoods. Inflation still sparks fear when mentioned, and this year is no exception. Drought in the US sent world grain prices shooting upward, and oil prices have again been volatile. Even so, consumer price indexes (CPI) are weakening alongside slower world growth, inciting deflation fears. What’s going on?…

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India’s Crisis: a Catalyst for Change? - September 20, 2012

2012-09-18 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Engines of the world economy. That was the moniker analysts gave to the world’s largest emerging economies not too long ago. Simultaneous slowdown has turned praise to pondering the causes and possible duration of the downturn. India is no exception. Growth is faltering in the economy many expect to ultimately take the lead among large emerging markets. Are yesterday’s bold predictions just a myth, or is the current malaise just another temporary setback?…

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Europe’s Self-Inflicted Recession - September 13, 2012

2012-09-11 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

For those who dine on dismal developments, Europe is serving up a feast. Data last week confirmed that the dreaded double-dip is indeed in full swing. As appetizing as this latest dish might have been to the media, dismal scientists and the Eeyores of the world, it was virtually ignored. The well-timed announcement by the European Central Bank of a new, aggressive bond purchase plan pre-empted the GDP story – but it remains to be seen if it can negate it. How deep and wide is Europe’s neo-dip?…

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Strategies for the Imminent Labour Crunch - August 30, 2012

2012-09-04 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Talk of Canada's impending labour shortage is gaining momentum. Demographic models point to 2016 as a pivotal year, when the population 15-55 begins a 5-year decline. That might still be a few years and a convincing global recovery away yet, but firms across Canada are already feeling birth pangs. Skilled labour is getting hard to come by, and huge development in Canada's resource sector will put pressure on labour supply for years to come. What strategies can enable Canada to cope?…

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Are US Consumers Shutting Down? - September 6, 2012

2012-09-04 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

When it comes to sheer clout in the global economy, there are few forces as powerful as US consumers. After all, as a whole, they account for about 14 cents of every dollar that circulates worldwide. When Americans shunned the shops early this summer, it’s no wonder markets weren’t happy. Is the world at risk of a US-consumer-led generalized slowdown?…

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What Club Membership Means for Russia - August 23, 2012

2012-08-28 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

After a long wait, Russia is finally in. Yesterday, the world’s 9th largest economy was welcomed into the World Trade Organization (WTO) following 18 years of negotiations. Getting to this point has been a tough slog on a number of fronts. Does accession signal a turning point for Russia, and for Canadian exporters doing business there, or will its ongoing transition remain turbulent?…

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The Dimensions of Diversification - August 16, 2012

2012-08-21 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Trade diversification is a theme that EDC Economics has had a lot to say about in the past few years. We debuted the topic back in 2008, expanded on it a few times, and made it the theme of last fall’s forecast. Is there really more to say? Actually, much of that analysis focussed on merchandise trade alone. The truth is, there are a few other key dimensions of diversification that are equally exciting.…

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Mongolia on the Move - August 9, 2012

2012-08-14 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Global thirst for raw materials has spurred a frenzy of exploration and development across the planet. Against predictions of peak production, rich new sources are being discovered and put into operation. Among the most exciting are the rich mineral deposits in Mongolia. The attention they have attracted has vaulted Mongolia onto the international stage, and is doing great things for its economy.…

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The Confidence Conundrum - August 2, 2012

2012-08-07 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Losses were legendary across a number of indicators in the immediate aftermath of the 2008-09 recession. Some have staged a remarkable comeback, while others remain in the red. Confidence is among the laggards, especially in the richest economies, stoking the debate on its overall importance and its role in the elusive economic recovery. Is it the fixer, or is it waiting for something to fix it?…

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US Economy is Rolling Along - July 26, 2012

2012-07-31 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

The searing heat of the 2012 summer has its equal in the temperature of the debate on the US economy. Nascent slowing in certain key indicators has provoked the bears and led to a flurry of downward revisions to forecasts. Others maintain that momentum is still there. Confusion is combining with the inordinate persistence of pessimism to shroud the near term in a thick haze. At the same time, there is good news – certain measures of current activity are doing reasonably well.…

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Pondering the Pause in Investment - July 19, 2012

2012-07-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

National accounts give a snapshot of what’s going on in an economy now. For most of the sub-components of the accounts, once the data is tabulated, that period is over, and all eyes shift to the next period. Investment is different – it is the one area of current spending that creates capacity for future activity. In that sense, it’s an important indicator of what’s to come, or at least what is possible. To that end, there’s a lot of debate about how Canada’s economy is doing on the investment front.…

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Staying the Course - July 12, 2012

2012-07-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It's a hot summer here in Ottawa, and the temptation is to forget all else and enjoy the good times. But that's a hard sell in today's economy. Is there a remedy? Few look to economic forecasts for solace - most are spouting the same doleful message. Is EDCs Summer 2012 Global Export Forecast any different? Here are a few reasons why this outlook may help you enjoy your summer break. …

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Summer Conversation Points - July 5, 2012

2012-07-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Canada Day has ushered in the northern summer, and with it the vacation season that will bring us together with friends and family. Getting to this point in the year has been turbulent, and there is no lack of conversation material. Here’s a hit list of economic issues that are likely to make the rounds this summer, and a quick perspective on the key discussion points.…

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Oil to the Rescue? - June 28, 2012

2012-07-03 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Few economic indicators grab the attention like oil prices. Large swings in recent years have led to statements in the popular media that in retrospect are comical. The upward run of prices between January and April led some to label this the greatest threat to continued world growth. They might have been right, but the recent plunge should quell those fears. Instead, other worries predominate. Should they, or are lower oil prices a hidden elixir for the world's woes?…

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Messages from the Greek Election - June 21, 2012

2012-06-26 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

This week began with euphoria over the Greek election win by the New Democracy party. Unlike the weekend Euro Cup victory, the revelry was short-lived. Rightly so, as the election represents but one major hurdle in a multi-hurdle race with no imminent finish line. After weeks of inter-election delay, there is a dire need for a coalition government that will keep Greece – and Europe – in the race.…

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Trade Confidence Rebounds - June 14, 2012

2012-06-19 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 3s

If numbers don't lie, then Canada's recent trade statistics give cause for concern. Worries that world weakness would work its way into our export performance seem to be turning into reality. Are Canada's exporters discouraged? Quite the opposite - during the spring, the Trade Confidence Index (TCI) rebounded sharply. What's going on?…

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US Economy: Running on Empty, or Going Strong? - June 07, 2012

2012-06-12 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

The debate is intensifying. In spite of a second-round recession and a new volley of bad news from the Euro Area, slowing emerging markets and persistent pessimism, key US indicators continue to put on an impressive show. Is current US momentum just another false start, or are there good reasons to believe that more is in store for the world’s top economy?…

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What’s On Your Mind? - May 31, 2012

2012-06-05 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 3s

May is into its final hours. That means at least two things: preparations are being made everywhere for the Canadian summer, and EDC is wrapping up our Let’s Talk Exports tour across the country. This year’s tour took me to 18 cities from coast to coast, where I was again able to meet many Commentary readers face to face. Not only was I able to share our latest thoughts on the economy, but I had the privilege of listening to your valuable insights. What did I hear?…

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Canadian Trade’s Forgotten Parallel Universe - May 24, 2012

2012-05-29 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

News reports give lots of profile to Canada’s trade with the rest of the world. Small wonder – trade is a huge part of the Canadian economy. Those reports typically focus on Canada-based activity. Far less press is given to the sizable Canadian economy that operates outside of our borders – the hidden jewel that is a critical piece of Canada’s current and future international trade apparatus.…

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Boom Behind the Headline - May 17, 2012

2012-05-22 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It's a week ago now, so it's old news - but it's still worth repeating. One look at Canada's trade data for March would be enough to file it under 'ho-hum' and wait for a more exciting month. Dig a bit below the surface, and the case gets very interesting. What's the big story behind the story?…

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Fiscal Drag Masks Success - May 10, 2012

2012-05-15 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

If the prosperity of the last economic cycle sent public spending exiting stage left, recession handed it the lead role. Its initial act was heroic – rescuing a world economy destined for depression. Now it’s the villain: paying back fiscal largesse is dragging down economic growth, fuelling near-term jitters and bringing down governments. To most, this is just the near end of a long, drawn-out act.…

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Iran: Risk of a Different Sort - May 3, 2012

2012-05-08 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Have you noticed? Rhetoric about the key risks to the near-term economic outlook seems more muted these days. This makes good sense if the near-term forecast is indeed improving, as higher growth generally makes the risks easier to handle. But one risk stands apart: Iran’s nuclear standoff with a coalition of Western and like-minded states is inching toward a crisis point.…

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BRICs Can Land Softly - April 26, 2012

2012-05-01 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

As advanced economies faltered in the Great Recession, hopes shifted to the fast-growing BRIC nations. They didn’t disappoint, until recently. Now, numbers reveal a BRIC slowdown, with important global implications. Are the stars of the last decade truly global growth engines, or are they fading?…

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Anchors Aweigh? - April 19, 2012

2012-04-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Everyone’s talking about it. It’s nothing new, but it’s now the mantra of the moment. ‘New normal’ is used everywhere to describe current and future conditions, and what it means for most is perpetual sluggish growth. Is popular sentiment right this time? Will the world economy be weighed down indefinitely by negative structural developments, or is there something better to look forward to?…

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World Shipping: Presaging Trade’s Ill-Fated Voyage? - April 12, 2012

2012-04-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Worried that international trade is about to run aground? There’s one indicator that suggests we should be. Other leading indicators are actually moving upward, but the Baltic Dry Index – a measure of bulk shipping costs, and normally a bellwether of global trade – is in the abyss. Are we headed for yet another slowdown in global commerce, or has this predictor somehow lost its way?…

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A Different Economic Development Model - April 5, 2012

2012-04-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Job creation is always at the forefront of economic progress. It becomes an even hotter issue when the economy goes down. The post-recession global economy is no exception. Unemployment rates are high everywhere, and policymakers the world over are obsessed with getting them down. Canada’s ageing population puts a different spin on job creation in the coming cycle.…

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Definition of the Exporter a Moving Target - March 29, 2012

2012-04-03 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Blinding. That’s the speed at which international trade has been transforming over the past two decades. It is re-casting models of cross-border commerce, and in the process has led to a lot of confusion about traditional definitions of international trade. In the midst of all this change, is it possible to get a handle on what an exporter really is these days? A tough task, but let’s give it a try.…

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Inflation's Magical Disappearing Act - March 22, 2012

2012-03-27 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

You think reality TV defines fickle? It doesn't shake a stick at the ‘price pundits’. They have dropped inflation-hype faster than the proverbial hot potato. You could hardly tell these days that just six months ago, it was an obsession, even moreso in emerging markets. Why the neo-silence? …

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SpOILer Again? - March 15, 2012

2012-03-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Oh no, not again! The US economy is showing strong vital signs, and along comes another run-up in oil prices. As in previous episodes, if recent price increases persist, they are significant enough to undermine US and global growth this year. What do we make of this latest spike?…

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China: Fragile, Handle With Care - March 8, 2012

2012-03-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

For all its oft-repeated recession-resilience, China’s economy is slowing. Forecasts are fading fast, the latest coming from China’s leaders themselves. On Monday at the National People’s Congress, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao lowered the 2012 growth target to 7.5%, a half-point below both the long-standing official target and EDCs current forecast. Is it tranquilizer time again?…

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Canada’s Trade: Diminishing Returns? - March 1, 2012

2012-03-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Opinions on Canadian international trade are many and varied. Exports and international investments were battered by the global recession, and have struggled to make a comeback. But overall growth was very slow before the recession, thanks to weak US sales. Count firms that export, and you’ll find the number has tumbled. Yet trade growth is expected to lead the Canadian economy forward, with supercharged trade to non-traditional markets leading the way. What do we make of these views? …

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Europe: Slip Sliding Away - February 23, 2012

2012-02-28 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Last week churned out a slew of data summing up what most had presumed: Europe is in recession. Worse still, the figures refer to the final three months of last year, yielding a very sorry springboard into a year that will have plenty of its own weakness. Few inside the economic region will escape this year's sluggishness, and many worry about extra-regional contagion. …

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Wood Exports: Not Lumbering On For Long - February 16, 2012

2012-02-21 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Talk casually to anyone about the US housing market, and you're likely to get a good volley of the latest reasons why it is never coming back. Data have been so weak for so long that it's not hard to become convinced that this is just part of a 'new normal' of lower activity. But something is stirring in the market: housing starts jumped 11 per cent in the latter half of 2011 from the average level in the preceding 30 months. Is the market telling us something?…

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TPP: Not Just Another Acronym - February 9, 2012

2012-02-14 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Get used to it, because it’s fast becoming a part of international trade language. Yes, there’s another acronym to learn, but it’s no fly-by night buzzword. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, is here to stay, and it’s gaining momentum. What is it, and why does it matter for Canada?…

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Mexico: High Stakes Situation - February 2, 2012

2012-02-07 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Much has been said in recent years about the promising Mexican economy. It is often mentioned in the same breath as the mighty BRICS, given Mexico’s increased international focus in the past quarter-century. This has paid great dividends, but has exposed Mexico to today’s wobbly world economy. Does global uncertainty threaten to render the promise hollow?…

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Trade Stats Speak Volumes - January 26, 2012

2012-01-31 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Data is normally the analyst’s best friend. Add a dollop of volatility, and it can fast become a foe. Data’s wacky wanderings of late have foiled many a forecast and contributed to an exaggerated, widespread sense of unease. International trade data were no exception, volatile right through the end of 2011. Do they give any hints of where global trade activity is headed this year?…

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The End of Globalisation? - January 19, 2012

2012-01-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

We’ve had a fair amount of time to think about a topic that surfaced before recession hit us just over three years ago. The end of globalisation is still being discussed, and the longer the world battles meagre growth, the more intense the conversation is likely to become. But does that suggest any particular outcome – is the fabric of international commerce really coming apart at the seams?…

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2012 Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic - January 12, 2012

2012-01-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Turbulence in 2011 led to the observation that for many, surviving the year was an achievement. Manifold risks remain, and most early-year predictions are being adjusted downward. In a year where the ultimate is easier to see than the immediate, bold pronouncements for 2012 deserve a healthy dose of skepticism. This is the delicate context for EDC's Winter 2012 Global Export Forecast.…

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In Search of an Economic Engine - January 5, 2012

2012-01-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Three working days into the New Year and it’s back to reality: bills to pay, an overstuffed inbox to deal with and more of the same scary world news we tried to forget over the holidays. Did the multitude of happy wishes for 2012 instil hope, or do they ring hollow as we contemplate what may lie ahead?…

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Surprise of 2011: The Year of Our Discontent - December 15, 2011

2011-12-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Thumb through the many disruptions the world has experienced in 2011, and you can easily sympathize with the task of narrowing surprises down to just one. To make matters worse, the shocks came at a point of particular economic vulnerability. But is there one that was truly a game-changer, one that will leave its mark for years to come?…

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Surprise of 2011: The Year of Our Discontent - December 15, 2011

2011-12-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Thumb through the many disruptions the world has experienced in 2011, and you can easily sympathize with the task of narrowing surprises down to just one. To make matters worse, the shocks came at a point of particular economic vulnerability. But is there one that was truly a game-changer, one that will leave its mark for years to come?…

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What's Behind the Plunge in Trade Confidence? - December 8, 2011

2011-12-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Can we trust our instincts? These days, that's a tough call. We are bombarded with data that is slumping one day and soaring the next. Worse still, the related analysis seems to ride the same roller-coaster, fogging the view even more. The rough ride is weighing on sentiment, and Canadian exporters are no exception: in mid-autumn, their confidence plunged to the fourth lowest level on record, throwing Canada's positive trade outlook into doubt. Are all bets now off?…

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India at a Turning Point? - December 1, 2011

2011-12-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It's no stretch to argue that India has the greatest long-term potential of any economy on the planet. It also faces monumental hurdles to achieving that potential. India's physical infrastructure is famous for all the wrong reasons, a predicament that its $1 trillion spending is pledging to remedy. The country's political problems are legendary, and will take much more than money to fix. Does the promise of this vast market outweigh the risk?…

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India at a Turning Point? - December 1, 2011

2011-12-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It's no stretch to argue that India has the greatest long-term potential of any economy on the planet. It also faces monumental hurdles to achieving that potential. India's physical infrastructure is famous for all the wrong reasons, a predicament that its $1 trillion spending is pledging to remedy. The country's political problems are legendary, and will take much more than money to fix. Does the promise of this vast market outweigh the risk?…

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Don’t Get BRIC’d In - November 24, 2011

2011-11-29 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Canadian exporters are scanning the globe for business opportunities like never before. Frustrated by weak demand in traditional export markets and a high Canada-US exchange rate, outward-looking businesses have expanded their perspective. There’s lots of buzz about fortunes to be made in BRIC countries. But too often, the talk stops there. Where are the solid opportunities beyond the BRICs?…

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Don’t Get BRIC’d In - November 24, 2011

2011-11-29 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Canadian exporters are scanning the globe for business opportunities like never before. Frustrated by weak demand in traditional export markets and a high Canada-US exchange rate, outward-looking businesses have expanded their perspective. There’s lots of buzz about fortunes to be made in BRIC countries. But too often, the talk stops there. Where are the solid opportunities beyond the BRICs?…

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US Recovery: Not Now, Not Never - November 17, 2011

2011-11-22 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 5s

Frustration is building. It is now almost two-and-a-half years since the US recession officially ended. We would normally be well into the next growth cycle by now. Not this time. Instead, growth sagged in the summer, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and news is mostly negative. Talk of double-dipping even surfaced amid speculation of long-term stagnation. Will the US economy ever recover?…

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Supply Shocks: Permanent Damage? - November 10, 2011

2011-11-15 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Exogenous shocks are the bane of economic forecasters. When negative, they are everyone's enemy. These are the unpredictable events that can radically alter an economic outlook, and 2011 was hit with significant ones. In the opening days of this year, just as global economic momentum was rising, political turmoil rocked North Africa. Just weeks later, Japan was hit with a devastating earthquake and tsunami. Now, Thailand is beset with severe flooding. Will the impact of these events prove temporary, or will there be more lasting effects?…

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Animal Spirits and the Economy - November 3, 2011

2011-11-08 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

You ride this elevator every day. But today is different - it is stopped between floors, and you're not happy. Neither are the other seven passengers. One grabs the emergency phone, another presses the alarm button. Nothing. Then without warning, the elevator pitches sideways, first this way, then that. Elevators weren't made to do that. Panic sets in. Passengers scream, one furiously presses buttons, another re-tries the phone, two try to pry the door open, and a brave soul tries to get out the top. Lots of activity, but little reason – a scene that could easily, yet unnecessarily, get everyone hurt.…

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The Import of Capacity - October 20, 2011

2011-10-25 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It takes teamwork to build an economy. Economic development plans at the local, regional and national level play a key role. Over the years, much has been written and myriad plans have been implemented by economic developers. Does all the economic transformation we have seen in the past 20 years in any way change the shape of modern economic development?…

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Two Speed Dials to Watch - October 13, 2011

2011-10-18 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Frustrated onlookers might say that recent data is for the birds. At present, the birds are flying south, and it seems like high-frequency financial indicators are doing the same. The daily stream of red numbers on financial tickers has again inspired the doomsayers, and sent confidence plunging from already-low levels. Is the slide presaging a double-dip, or is something else going on?…

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Following the Lead - October 27, 2011

2011-10-18 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Gloomy headlines are a dime a dozen these days. Ah, but pessimism still sells as much as it ever did. Trouble is, it also spreads, and more ominously, can be self-fulfilling. There is evidence to back up the bleary blogs, but there are also key pieces of data that defy the doom. Canada’s composite leading indicator for September seems to be in the former camp – but is it really pointing downward?…

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Brazil: Ocean of Opportunity - October 6, 2011

2011-10-11 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Soaring over the giant city of Sao Paulo, one gets an instant impression that Brazil is on the move. Among the endless sea of buildings there are ample new construction projects. Roads are jammed full of commuters, and are being upgraded to accommodate even more. Industry continues adding to last year’s surge, leaving its telltale brown smudge on the sunlit skyline. Is the nascent grinding of the global economic gearbox a threat to this upbeat picture, or will Brazil’s resilience persist?…

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The Global Feeding Frenzy - September 29, 2011

2011-10-04 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Early in 2008, rising prices sparked widespread worries about food shortages in Southeast Asia. Further price increases ensued as households staged a run on local food supplies – creating the tangible appearance of a food crisis when in actual fact, food supplies were quite sufficient to meet the demands of the market. Fortunately, when flows resumed, calm was restored.…

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Despite Disorder, Orders Are Up - September 22, 2011

2011-09-27 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Demand for tranquilizers is up again. Worry about economic deceleration is rising, and with it, fears of a double-dip recession. Forecasts are being revised down. Markets remain volatile, and additional bad news out of Europe is not helping. In the confusion, it is unclear whether the summer slowdown was temporary, or a more serious setback. Are all the indicators pointing south?…

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Trade Data Renews Hope - September 15, 2011

2011-09-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Nothing puts a smile on the face these days like a good month of job growth. But the frowns etching the faces of leaders and lackeys alike tell today’s tale - employment numbers have not impressed, increasing the focus on this key indicator. Concern is motivating new job-creation programs in various countries as a means of kick-starting economic activity. Will the programs meet expectations?…

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Jobs: Engine, or Caboose? - September 8, 2011

2011-09-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Nothing puts a smile on the face these days like a good month of job growth. But the frowns etching the faces of leaders and lackeys alike tell today’s tale - employment numbers have not impressed, increasing the focus on this key indicator. Concern is motivating new job-creation programs in various countries as a means of kick-starting economic activity. Will the programs meet expectations?…

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Singapore’s Clues About Global Trade - September 1, 2011

2011-09-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

International trade flows have aptly illustrated the global economy’s three-year roller-coaster ride. By January 2009, global exports had tumbled 19% in just six months. But since then, world exports have vastly outpaced GDP growth, rising at a 16% annualized pace with hardly a pause. Until recently. Activity peaked in March, but has since fallen 2.5%. Is this temporary, or a more serious setback?…

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Oil Overreaction? - August 25, 2011

2011-08-30 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

High oil prices seem to have become a fact of life. Many have grudgingly advised that we had better get used to it, and move on. Analysis repeatedly cites insatiable emerging market demand and limited accessible supplies as key factors. It’s tough, if not impossible to refute these arguments, but similar reasoning in the early 1970s led to wacky forecasts. Are today’s triple-digit projections reasonable?…

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Germany: Global Growth Engine? - August 18, 2011

2011-08-23 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

With all the troubles swirling around Western Europe these days, one economy stands out. By all appearances, Germany is an island of sanity in a fiscal and financial world gone mad. While growth in the rest of the world is faltering, impressive performance has lifted consensus growth for Germany to 3.7%, the envy of the G7. Does Germany have a secret antidote for what ails the world economy?…

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Losing our Cool in the Summer? - August 11, 2011

2011-08-16 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Predictability is a long-sought but elusive state in the modern economy. It seems particularly elusive at the moment. Unusual uncertainty and volatility are delaying the global economy’s healing process. We all have some tolerance for turbulence, but at a certain point even the strongest stomachs start to churn – and at that point, the resulting rush for a remedy can wreak havoc with the economy. …

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Austerity Verity - August 4, 2011

2011-08-09 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

When it comes to frequency of word usage in the media, 'slowdown' is way up in the rankings. For a world economy that has been in the yo-yo zone since early 2009, that might be a ho-hum insight. Yet the OECD sees a widespread, multi-country slowdown occurring in a context of elevated risk. Is this just more pre-recovery turbulence, or is there more to the current soft performance?…

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Shipping Caught in Price Doldrums - July 28, 2011

2011-08-02 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

There’s a lot of talk about inflation these days. Too much, perhaps. But there’s at least one place that prices don’t seem to be flexing their muscles: ocean freight rates. That might make some sense from a global demand perspective, but not when sky-high fuel prices are considered. What’s going on?…

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Inflation in the EU: Really? - July 21, 2011

2011-07-26 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

A galloping charger needs restraints. Not so the placid horse. Which one characterizes current EU inflation? The ECB sees the former, and has seen fit to grasp the reins more tightly, raising key interest rates for the second time in three months. Analysts are divided, and the stakes are high.…

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Summer Setback - July 14, 2011

2011-07-19 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Two steps forward, one step back. That seems to be the current cadence of the world economy. While it suggests progress, it is frustrating. The momentum that was clearly building over the past year has recently downshifted. Is this the best the global economy can do, or are better times ahead?…

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US: Poised for a Big Comeback? - July 07, 2011

2011-07-12 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Worried about the US economy? You’re not alone. US equity markets fell for six weeks in a row as nervous investors piled into US treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down to 2.8%, the lowest level since November. Key indicators from various sectors of the economy have swooned. Is this just more evidence of a capricious market, or is this chapter 1 of the US version of Japan’s ‘lost decade’?…

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Surprise Rise in Trade Confidence - June 30, 2011

2011-07-05 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It’s a tough time to gauge business sentiment. During the spring, news of natural disasters, political turmoil and the sorry state of public finances contrasted with signs of growing economic momentum. Perhaps this is why a prominent survey of Canadian SMEs made waves last week, simultaneously signalling both larger hiring intentions and plunging confidence. Are Canadian exporters as gloomy?…

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Economic Models: In a Funk - June 23, 2011

2011-06-28 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

If market volatility gives economic models a headache, then they have a whopping migraine at the moment. Critically dependent on past trends, models are now having to absorb the mega-changes of the last growth cycle, and so far, their record is sketchy. What are these model-rocking changes?…

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That’s A Good Question! - June 16, 2011

2011-06-21 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Our cross-Canada Let’s Talk Exports forecast presentations are usually followed by lively question-and-answer sessions. Without this interaction, we would not get a true sense of the concerns, the fears and the aspirations of Canada’s exporters. I’m happy to report that this year was no exception, and the following is a synopsis of the questions uppermost in the minds of our audiences this spring.…

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Loonie at Par: Loony? - June 9, 2011

2011-06-14 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Our spring Let’s Talk Exports roadshow wrapped up last week. Over the 15-city tour, one key concern was expressed without fail: the soaring Canadian dollar. Above par since January, the Northern buck has many believing it is stuck there. Has parity now become permanent, or is some relief on the way?…

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MENA Dilemma - June 2, 2011

2011-06-07 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

If shocks are the bane of forecasts, this year we are doubly cursed. Thus far, the world has been wracked by multiple natural disasters. Equally unpredictable was the unrest that gripped the Middle East and North Afric (MENA), and it has likewise shaken confidence. If seemingly bullet-proof regimes fell so swiftly, can we predict with any confidence future fallout in the region – and the world?…

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Decoupling: Yes and No - May 26, 2011

2011-05-31 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Prior to the global financial and economic meltdown, observers were heralding news that the world was decoupling. As the last growth cycle peaked, many market watchers saw divergent growth as a sign that the world was moving away from a single economic growth engine. Indeed, emerging market growth was roaring ahead, and even Europe seemed to be diverging from US growth trends.…

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The Diversification Dividend - May 19, 2011

2011-05-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

As the next growth cycle approaches, Canada faces a daunting list of challenges. An aging population. Unfunded pension liabilities. Ballooning health care costs. The sustainability of public finances. Poor productivity growth. A lack of innovation. An irrepressible currency. High consumer debt loads. The list goes on. When world growth revives, will we join in or get left behind?…

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Countdown to Launch Underway - May 12, 2011

2011-05-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Scan any serious recent report on global economic woes, and housing markets figure prominently. They illustrate both the consumer and financial excesses of the last growth cycle. They are an equally apt illustrator of sluggish post-recession growth. But housing is a tiny fraction of GDP. And in a highly globalized world, residential construction is still one of the most domestically-oriented industries. Should an outward-looking world really care about this relatively small segment of the economy?…

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Housing is Foundational - May 5, 2011

2011-05-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Scan any serious recent report on global economic woes, and housing markets figure prominently. They illustrate both the consumer and financial excesses of the last growth cycle. They are an equally apt illustrator of sluggish post-recession growth. But housing is a tiny fraction of GDP. And in a highly globalized world, residential construction is still one of the most domestically-oriented industries. Should an outward-looking world really care about this relatively small segment of the economy?…

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US Debt Outlook: A Warning in the Warning - April 28, 2011

2011-05-03 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Just when we thought we had enough shocks to deal with, Standard and Poor's published a negative outlook on the US sovereign rating. The market reaction was swift: the Dow Jones Industrial average immediately shed 140 points, or 1.1%, amid a bevy of alarming media stories. But US bond yields hardly budged, and within 24 hours were back comfortably below the levels seen prior to the agency’s warning. Is the bond market really blasé, or is there danger of a more severe reaction ahead?…

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Still in Synch? More or Less - April 21, 2011

2011-04-26 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Losing 20% of anything you value is not fun. Whether it’s crops, staff members in your company, life savings or lunch money, the loss hurts. Recession stung the world by carving more than 20% from global exports. But after a two-year climb, export activity finally closed that gap in December 2010. Are all regions sharing in the rebound, or has it created clear winners and losers?…

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Surprise South of the Border? - April 14, 2011

2011-04-19 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It’s an economic adage well known to Canadians: the US sneezes, and we catch pneumonia. We don’t suffer alone – this delicate constitution also afflicts the only other nation to share a long stretch of US border. It’s only natural to expect that Mexico was ravaged by the US-led recession, and that it has shared the frustrating convalescence that followed. How is the Mexican economy doing?…

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A Shock Felt Around the World - April 7, 2011

2011-04-12 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Like that famous shot that preceded the Great War, the shock that devastated north-eastern Japan on March 11 has a global reach. As Japan struggles to cope in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami, the impacts of the catastrophe on the highly-integrated global economy are beginning to sink in. Is the world economy resilient enough to overcome the consequences of the shock?…

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BRIC to BRICS - March 31, 2011

2011-04-05 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Getting in to the country club is a mark of success, a coming of age. Among countries, country clubs have the same appeal. Until 2008, the big one to get into was the G-7. Nowadays, the brass plate on the front door of the coveted club reads ‘BRIC’. And it seems poised to take on a new member.…

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Construction: Rebalancing Act - March 24, 2011

2011-03-29 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

The construction industry is not for the faint of heart. It experiences the great heights of an economic boom, and the deep chasms of recession. Every downturn takes many casualties, and it takes a lot of strength to survive. The current economic cycle is again testing the industry’s nerves. The downturn has been particularly long – will recovery come soon enough to keep today’s survivors going?…

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Trade Numbers Disconcerting - March 17, 2011

2011-03-22 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

The world economy received its latest checkup last week with the release of a bevy of international trade data. Hopes were high that the numbers would yield further evidence of rising global economic momentum. Instead, the results were mixed – not what anyone wants to hear at checkup time.…

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Profits at Odds With the Dollar? - March 10, 2011

2011-03-15 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Nerves are getting raw – again. Just as Canada’s domestic sector is getting ready to hand the torch over to exporters, the dollar has moved decisively beyond the parity mark. The current climb is building on a recent up-trend that began in mid-2010. You might expect to see the effects in Canada’s corporate profits data, but the most recent numbers look strong. Is there a simple explanation?…

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Innovation is Critical - March 3, 2011

2011-03-08 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It’s a really bad day. You’re half a world away and web access in your hotel is down indefinitely. You left your air card on the plane, and there’s no internet café nearby. Getting out of your cab, the Blackberry fell into a puddle. Zap. Your IT hotline is busy. You’re staring a 7AM deadline in the face, and you are down to a word processor, a spreadsheet and an external memory device. Disaster.…

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Inflation Consternation - February 24, 2011

2011-03-01 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Looking for a clear message on the world economy’s current state? You may not want to start with price statistics. At present, you can find runaway inflation, stability, disinflation and deflation, depending on where you look. Can we make any sense of the mixed messages?…

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Beginning of a Weak Spell for Japan? - February 17, 2011

2011-02-22 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Global economic momentum is on the rise. Improvement in the US outlook is one of the key reasons. But not all countries are benefiting. Japan, which recently lost its ‘number 2’ status to China, appears to be faltering. Is this just a temporary blip, or a signal of something deeper?…

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Europe’s Test Affects the Rest - February 10, 2011

2011-02-15 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Amid the hoopla of monetary union in 1999, certain Eurosceptics warned that the Zone would not survive its first recession. But even they didn’t dream at the time that the first recession would be the worst in over 60 years. It is taking its toll, with countries on the periphery of the Union testing the limits of the fraternal bond. Fiscal weakness in peripheral nations is not just the greatest test for Europe, but for a fledgling world economy eager to launch into the next growth cycle. Will we pass the test?…

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Household Debt Clock is Ticking - February 3, 2011

2011-02-08 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Prodigal. Imprudent. Profligate. Adjectives like this have been used liberally in recent years to portray the unfettered, debt-financed spending habits of American consumers. At the same time, much more flattering language has been used to describe Canada’s exemplary financial system, well-managed fiscal policy and stable domestic growth. The wording has taken on a worried tone. Recent domestic growth was aided by a considerable run-up in personal debt. Is the nascent concern warranted?…

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Reprieve from the Relapse - January 27, 2011

2011-02-01 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Need a refresher on the world economy’s recent travels? Canadian exports tell the story: ravaged by the global recession, rescued by a rapid rebound, and now repressed by a relapse that has fogged up the view of the future. In contrast, Canada’s domestic economy has been unusually resilient, rescuing us from the regular roughing-up global recessions usually bring. But momentum on the home front is fading. Are exports ready to pick up the slack and keep the near-term outlook afloat? …

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Opportunities Beyond the BRICs - January 20, 2011

2011-01-25 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Browse media reports on any given day and you’ll find a litany of stories on the BRIC countries, and with good reason. Their growth record is stunning, and they have strong future potential. They each possess huge internal markets that give new meaning to the word ‘scale’. Their economic rise is increasing their influence in world affairs at the same time as established powers are grappling with diminished growth potential. It’s hardly surprising that the world is eager to harness this potential.…

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Exporters: Cautiously Optimistic - January 13, 2011

2011-01-12 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It’s good to enter a new year with a healthy dose of optimism. This is no small task for Canadian exporters, who saw robust growth in the first half of 2010, but are now faced with the dual challenges of weakening global demand and a stubbornly high Canadian dollar. Are these challenges weighing on the Canadian exporting community, or is there optimism in spite of the obstacles?…

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Ready for the Real Recovery? - January 6, 2011

2011-01-05 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

2010 may well become known as the year of the false start. Growth that looked every inch like true recovery fizzled by mid-year, feeding the confusion and uncertainty that is the hallmark of the recession’s aftermath. At the start of a new year, it would be nice if we could shrug off our economic troubles, and start with a clean slate. Unfortunately, we bring with us challenges aplenty.…

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Surprise of the Year: Price Paradox - December 23, 2010

2010-12-22 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Looking back over 2010, there was no lack of drama. The year began with a bang: news that we ended 2009 with a surge of growth combined with evidence of continuation into the New Year. Most were proclaiming recovery. But just as abruptly, the engine stalled in the second quarter as the effects of stimulus faded. Then came the successive waves of sovereign default fears. In all the turbulence, there are many possible candidates for the big surprise. Can we narrow it down to one?…

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An Import-ant Source of Growth - December 16, 2010

2010-12-15 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Negative numbers in any country’s national accounts are generally bad news. They mostly show up as periodic declines in activity, and we have seen a lot of that lately. Imports always show up as a negative number, by definition, and consequently are often looked at as ‘bad’. But at the world level, one’s imports are another’s exports, and as such point to sources of demand and opportunity.…

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In India’s Perennial Problem, a Solution - December 9, 2010

2010-12-08 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

India’s modern-day growth path is the envy of most nations. Annual GDP has vaulted ahead by an average of 6.4% over the past 10 years, and the economy handled the global recession well. Growth this year and next is averaging 8.4%, a little over India’s own speed limit. While the West frets about double-dipping, India is trying to prevent overheating. It may get some unwanted help: key constraints already hinder the economy, and unaddressed, threaten to short-circuit India’s stellar expansion.…

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Big Economies in a Policy Squeeze - December 2, 2010

2010-12-01 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

The recent recession was shock enough, but it was at least rivalled for effect by the public policy response that followed. Overnight, Western economic policy turned on a dime. Crisis led to a swift, significant and highly synchronized global response, with governments everywhere pledging to cut rates, spend, and do ‘whatever it takes’. Suddenly, the policy world seemed a very different place.…

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Preparing for a Rebound in European Trade - November 25, 2010

2010-11-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

International trade has been the punching bag of the global recession. Accustomed for years to leading global growth, trade fell by 11% in 2009 as the global economy shrank 0.6%. A partial revival occurred in the 6-month growth spurt that began last fall, but renewed slowdown has analysts wondering whether this economic episode is a permanent setback for trade and the process of globalization. Is the future of international trade in doubt? …

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Big Banks – Turning the Corner? - November 18, 2010

2010-11-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Faith in the global banking system was shattered in late 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Only extraordinary intervention by governments prevented the systemic, cascading bank failures last seen in the 1930’s. Even so, there are lingering questions about the health of banks. They are once again profitable, but are they still vulnerable to shocks? Will bank lending recover, and if so, when? …

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Consumer Comeback? Not Yet - November 11, 2010

2010-11-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Like it or not, the world’s consumers are a critical piece of the global recovery puzzle. Without a revival in this key sector, the world economy will remain in neutral. Can we expect this mighty economic engine to fire up soon, or is it more likely to continue drifting for some time to come?…

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Chinese Growth: Actual or Artificial? - November 4, 2010

2010-11-03 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Emerging market titans seem to be flying through economic turbulence with remarkable ease. China has continued to impress onlookers with consistent, double-digit GDP growth. Many see China as an anchor of world growth. So far, so good. But can China keep things going as world growth slows?…

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The Moment of Truth - October 28, 2010

2010-10-27 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Chaotic movements in world economic output gave way to a new phase at mid-year. Suddenly, it seemed that everything got quiet. Far from an antidote to chaos, this is a disquieting quiet, a mid-rebound slowdown that doesn’t normally occur. It’s a shock, and many wonder why it has happened. …

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The Perplexing Path of Prices - October 21, 2010

2010-10-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It’s easy to get dizzy tracing the recent path of prices. General price movements have oscillated from inflation to disinflation and back again over the past two years. Earlier this year, strong growth rekindled inflation worries in many economies, prompting much discussion about the unwinding of loose monetary conditions, and resulting in tightening actions by various monetary authorities.…

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Commodity Oddity - October 14, 2010

2010-10-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

May, 2010 was just a few days old when the world economy hit a troubling inflection point. Concerns about the viability of Southern European economies combined with slowing growth to sour recovery hopes. Pundits are now proclaiming modest growth in unison, but commodity markets must have the earplugs in. Prices should be falling, but instead they are going the other way. What’s going on?…

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OECD Barometer: Weather is Worsening - October 7, 2010

2010-10-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

If increased technology has any downsides, then a prominent one would have to be information overload. When it comes to the economy, data overload can be a problem, and given current market uncertainty, it seems as if each one of the multitude of indicators is examined in minute detail for the latest clue about the world economy’s movements. Many have a very similar message that is neatly summarized in the OECD leading indicator. What signal is this prescient measure sending?…

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Europhoria: Short-Lived? - September 30, 2010

2010-09-29 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Markets are hungry for good news, and they gobbled up the second-quarter GDP report for Europe with gusto. The numbers were indeed impressive, and birthed a torrent of econo-chatter about the possibility of an EU-led global recovery. Is this jump in growth the start of something big?…

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CAC Region Preparing for Recovery - September 23, 2010

2010-09-22 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Aside from the occasional news flash, the world’s attention is not usually centred on Central America and the Caribbean (CAC). But this smaller segment of the New World still carries enormous strategic importance, and it significance for the world economy and global international trade is on the rise. Canada is currently well placed to participate in the region’s dynamism.…

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Trade: Canada’s Great Hope - September 16, 2010

2010-09-15 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Gloom abounds in the world economy, and with good reason. Surviving the current episode is critical, but growth eventually will recover, and hopes for longer-term prosperity will brighten. Strategies for success in the coming growth cycle are already being crafted. Is Canada well-placed to succeed?…

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Second-Quarter Shock in America - September 9, 2010

2010-09-08 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

That famous hole in Wyoming where central bankers and other key economy-watchers convened two weekends ago was a fitting metaphor for the post factum sentiment of delegates. Or at least, the American ones. Sentiments were decidedly gloomy, noteworthy for a group that eschews herd hysterics. The mood was fed by the latest US GDP data, released just a day before the conference.…

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Profits: Prophet of Renewed Weakness? - September 2, 2010

2010-09-01 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Corporate profits, volatile at the best of times, are usually the punching bag of recessions. Likewise, as an economy emerges from recession, profits can yield key clues about the durability of recovery. For Canada, this profit cycle is alive and well. What is this prophet saying about near-term prospects?…

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Japan: Dark Clouds Obscure the Sunrise - August 26, 2010

2010-08-25 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Last week began with double-barreled news from Japan that grabbed the airwaves. The industrial giant was bumped out of second place among world economies by China. This occurred as growth in Japanese GDP slowed to a crawl in the second quarter. The world seemed shocked, but it shouldn’t have been. China’s ascendancy was as imminent and predictable as Japan’s nascent slowing.…

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In Search of Growth...Elsewhere - August 19, 2010

2010-08-18 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Recent international trade statistics corroborate what is obvious in other economic indicators: growth is slowing worldwide. For the trade stats, it’s a new phenomenon, but other, forward-looking data suggest that weakness will linger through the second half of this year. Governments, worried enough about local demand, are busy implementing trade promotion policies. Are they likely to succeed?…

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Labourers in Hiding - August 12, 2010

2010-08-11 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Of the myriad monthly indicators that market-watchers dissect, few generate the palpitations induced by labour force data – both before and after release. It’s no surprise. Job growth is the anchor of demand, one of the key determinants of economic well-being. A convincing recovery in employment has yet to occur, increasing the angst of the monthly labour-data vigil. …

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US Housing: Recovery Interrupted? - August 5, 2010

2010-08-04 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

History will no doubt point to the US housing market as the hallmark of the past decade’s excesses. The heights achieved were only exceeded for drama by the spectacular and protracted plunge of the market, and the collateral damage sustained by the financial sector. Activity has been particularly weak since late 2008, and to date, there are scant signs of a reprieve. Is the carnage almost over?…

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Awaiting the Prudence Payback - July 29, 2010

2010-07-28 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Lambasting big-economy consumers for their excesses has become a popular recession-time sport. Chastened by the exposure of their self-engineered plight, many consumers have hunkered down, quietly working down excesses and deleveraging. Their activities are obvious in consumer spending data; this large chunk of the world economy has been a soft spot. Is the new prudence paying off?…

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Widespread Weakness in Core Inflation - July 22, 2010

2010-07-21 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Economic rebound, localized capacity constraints and base effects kept global inflation-chatter active in the opening months of this year. In recent weeks, there’s a kind of hush setting in on the topic. Have other issues crowded this one out, or is recent inflation performance telling a deeper story?…

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Second-Half Softening Tests World Economy - July 15, 2010

2010-07-14 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

The pressure is rising. Slower growth is etched all over current data, dampening the bullish mood that dominated the airwaves in the first quarter. Markets are in yet another turbulent phase as we move into the post-stimulus phase of the rebound – perhaps the trickiest period in the past two years.…

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US Auto Sales On Hold? - July 8, 2010

2010-07-07 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

America’s obsession with vehicles was shaken by the onset of recession. Firms that were the icons of US auto production for multiple generations were suddenly on the brink of extinction. Hotly contested government bailouts bought them time, and sales rebounded handily – a great relief for Canadian auto sector exporters. But in June, US vehicle sales dipped again. Is this cause for concern?…

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Canada’s Day - July 1, 2010

2010-06-30 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Canada is capturing world attention on a number of fronts these days. Although better known for our diminutive, self-effacing persona, Canadians could be forgiven for taking special pride in key recent developments. These are especially welcome, given the general abundance of bad international news in the past 24 months, and are a boost to Canada ahead of the coming economic recovery.…

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Baltic Dry Index Tumbles - June 24, 2010

2010-06-23 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Summer has arrived in the Northern hemisphere, and those expecting a quieter pace may get more than they bargained for. As we enter the season, a growing number of key international indicators are on the wane. One of the more dramatic is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an important barometer of global trade activity. In recent days, the Index has seen an alarming freefall. What’s going on? …

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Domestic Strength Boosts Trade Confidence - June 17, 2010

2010-06-16 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Trade confidence is up? It hardly seems possible. Earlier this year, maybe, when a bevy of strong economic reports set the world abuzz with recovery-talk. But now, with heightened concern about Southern Europe’s public finances, worries about China’s performance, new cracks appearing in US demand, tumbling commodity prices and a stubbornly strong Canadian dollar? In this context, a rise in Canadian trade confidence seems out of place. Why the increase?…

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Uh-oh, China Slows - June 10, 2010

2010-06-09 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Weary of manifold dismal economic reports, solace-seekers have turned to the balm of Chinese data in the past 18 months. They haven’t been disappointed. But that may be changing. Recent stats are taking the shine off the impressive record, casting doubt on the fledgling global economic rebound.…

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Leading Indicator in Trouble? - June 3, 2010

2010-06-02 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Of all the indicators of Canada’s economic rebound, perhaps none is more convincing than StatCan’s Composite Leading Indicator (CLI). The Index has now risen for 11 consecutive months, at an impressive average monthly pace of 1%. In the latest survey, 8 of the 10 components increased, clearly a solid result. This indicator is on a roll, but is there a danger that it might actually roll over?…

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Recession and Rebound: Impact by Industry - May 27, 2010

2010-05-26 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

For Canadian exporters, it was hard to hide from last year’s storm. Canada’s international sales experienced their biggest pounding in recent memory, and every industry was affected. The impact was greater for those on the leading edge of the storm. Is recovery likewise varied by industry?…

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Preparing for the “New Normal” - May 20, 2010

2010-05-19 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

By now it is clear that the global recession is over. That means we are on our way back to normality, but there are many reasons to expect it to be a different sort of normality than many seem to expect.…

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Industrialized Sovereigns in Trouble - May 13, 2010

2010-05-19 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

News about worsening public finances in Western Europe rocked global financial markets last week, and revealed an underlying fragility in confidence. Apparently, patience with the on-again, off-again approach of policymakers to the problem zones wore thin. Was the reaction overdone, or overdue?…

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Is Copper’s Optimism Well-Founded? - May 6, 2010

2010-05-05 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Up is in vogue again. Many economic indicators are pointing upward, and many analysts now have a good dose of up-timism. One of those is copper, the orange metal with the innate sense of the world economy’s near term path. Recent movements in copper prices suggest that the world economy is revving up for a very strong rebound. Is copper right again, or are we witnessing a rare false start?…

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The Critical Zone - April 29, 2010

2010-05-05 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It was the best of times. In late 2008, it turned into the worst of times. Then came abject pessimism, followed by a period of uncertainty and volatility. Sentiment was tentative as the world economy entered 2010, but the resumption of growth has lifted spirits, and prompted economy-watchers to hail the long-awaited recovery. Is this nascent rise the real thing, or does recovery still elude our grasp?…

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Alberta’s Other Economy - April 22, 2010

2010-04-28 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Think about Alberta, you think about oil and gas. Reserves in the feted oil sands are vast, rivalling those of Saudi Arabia. Just two years ago, widespread fear that the planet was running out of oil vaulted Alberta’s extensive and politically secure supplies to the centre of the global stage. With all the attention, it’s easy for the casual observer to forget Alberta’s other economy, and it’s potential.…

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India: Will Politics Hinder Progress? - April 15, 2010

2010-04-21 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

India’s economy may have enormous future potential to grow. There may even be enough money available to create the infrastructure needed to facilitate that economic potential. But does India, with its storied recent history of political fragmentation, and in some cases outright gridlock, want economic progress and prosperity enough to overcome its inhibiting political legacy?…

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India’s Infrastructure Plans: Dreams or Reality? - April 8, 2010

2010-04-14 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Explosive growth became the norm for India in the global economy’s boom years, and few pundits disagree that long run growth potential is better here than anywhere else. India’s prowess was tested in the global recession, but the subcontinent has rebounded handily. Its sights are now trained on longer term growth in an ambitious new 5-year plan. Will India achieve its high-growth objectives?…

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Big Spenders Still Hesitant - April 1, 2010

2010-04-07 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

In economic banter, recovery is a word that has been ahead of its time for over a year. It was dusted off following the global plunge in output last year, and has been well-used since. But the debate on the timing of a convincing global recovery remains open. What do large-economy consumers think?…

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Caribbean Economies: Less Fun in the Sun - March 24, 2010

2010-03-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Northerners are now returning from the annual Spring Break trek to southern destinations. Once again, Caribbean nations extended a traditional warm welcome to visitors, although cooler weather and a not-too-hot world economy may have kept their numbers down. Caribbean countries have felt the ill effects of the global downturn directly. Are they poised to fully harness economic recovery?…

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Industrial Production: 2-Speed Recovery? - March 17, 2010

2010-03-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Recent data have many pundits hailing emerging markets as the world economy’s new growth engine. Industrial production statistics are a key part of that argument. Do they indeed suggest that there is a 2-speed recovery underway, and that emerging markets are leading the charge? …

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The Diversification Solution - March 10, 2010

2010-03-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Good investment advice, but easy to ignore when the return on a certain asset is particularly good. Canadian international trade faces the same dilemma. We know that more diverse trade would be a good thing, but over the years, the yield on trade with the US has been too tempting. But do we ignore trade diversification at our own peril?…

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Reversal of Profit Plunge Underway - March 3, 2010

2010-03-03 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Corporate profits are among the hardest-hit indicators in recessionary episodes, and unfortunately this time around the situation is no different: Canadian corporations saw profits tumble sharply for three successive quarters through mid-2009. Declines cut across a broad swath of industries, but in most sectors, growth has resumed. Does this just spell the end of declines, or a decisive U-turn?…

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Commercial Construction: Recovery’s Wrecking Ball? - February 24, 2010

2010-02-24 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Lagging indicators are the bane of economic recovery. They are the final waves that recessions send crashing into an economy, and depending on their timing, can wreak havoc with nascent recovery. One such indicator is commercial construction, and the substantial and sustained weakening of this key sector has market-watchers worried. Will it prove to be the recovery’s wrecking ball?…

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Inflation Muted Despite Surging Indexes - February 17, 2010

2010-02-17 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Latest monthly price data for OECD economies are now hitting the wires, and are sure to re-kindle inflation-chatter. Economic uncertainty has led to disparate views of near-term price movements, at the risk of confusing onlookers. Is the resumption of economic growth creating inflation pressures?…

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Woes in Greece Reveal Broader Fiscal Concerns - February 10, 2010

2010-02-10 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Fiscal finances the world over are feeling the deep effects of recession. Support for the ailing world economy was swift, substantial and synchronized in late 2008, creating large deficits that are now being widened as unemployment and lower business activity erode revenues. Hints of downgrades to AAA-rated countries, let alone the multitude of lesser credits, are a hot news item. In this context, it is no surprise that Greece is the latest draw for the economic paparazzi.…

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Sustainable Surge in US Growth? - February 3, 2010

2010-02-03 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

The US economy surprised everyone in the closing months of 2009. Preliminary figures show the economy churned out impressive 5.7% annualized growth. As the US led the world into recession, it is expected to lead us out. Does the fourth-quarter, 2009 surge herald the beginning of recovery? …

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Back in the Black? Yes and No - January 27, 2010

2010-01-27 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

There’s nothing like a little growth to pick up the spirits. Many indicators are pointing north again, and sentiment is noticeably brighter – in part, out of relief that the worst is behind us, but also reflecting a broadly-based rebirth of hope. Following a tough 2009, Canada will see the return of growth this year.…

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China’s High-Wire Act - January 20, 2010

2010-01-20 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession. But at the same time, the Chinese economy registers as one of the top global economic risks in the World Economic Forum’s newly-minted Global Risks 2010 report. Is this worry warranted? …

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Exporters See Better Times Ahead - January 13, 2010

2010-01-13 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

One year ago, Canadian exporters were a very gloomy bunch, and with good reason. The recession everyone else was still fearing had already hit exporters hard, and things were getting worse. In fact, 2009 dealt exports their worst drubbing in recent memory – by a factor of six, no less. In this context, it is hardly surprising that exporters are now feeling much more confident about near-term prospects.…

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Stage Set for a Happier New Year - January 6, 2010

2010-01-06 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It was hard to be positive about short-term economic prospects at this time last year. Our New Year’s message could hardly have been more doleful, and as it happened, the message was warranted. Global activity levels are now much lower than they were in late 2008, and a true world recovery remains elusive. Are we in for more of the same this year, or can we look forward to better times?…

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Surprise of the Year: The Retreat of Risk - December 16, 2009

2009-12-16 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

It seemed that as 2009 began, everywhere you looked there was risk. Output was plummeting. World financial markets were in disarray. Confidence was shattered. References to the Great Depression became fashionable. Markets were jolted into sobriety with the stark realization that risk appetite had for a long time been out of step with reality. Earnest recalibration of risk was underway.…

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Gloom in Global Shipping - December 9, 2009

2009-12-09 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

As the sun begins to set on 2009, international traders are likely breathing a collective sigh of relief. Accustomed to hefty annual increases, traders are weathering a 17% drop in global volumes thus far in the year, and there are few signs of rebound. Will traders’ fortunes revive in the coming year?…

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Financial Market Turbulence: A Shock? - December 2, 2009

2009-12-02 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

If the world economy has you feeling queasy, there’s good reason. We’re still in the heaving seas typical of the zone between recession and recovery, hoping that the next wave will be the last, and that it won’t swamp us. Dubai World’s announcement last week of suspended payments on $60 billion of debt is a huge wave we are still navigating, and the jury is still out on its lasting effects.…

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Indonesia: Tiger-in-Waiting - November 25, 2009

2009-11-25 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

On any list of the world’s ascendant emerging economies, Indonesia would be pretty close to the top. Nestled in the planet’s hottest economic growth zone, the archipelago is blessed with natural wealth and the world’s fourth-largest population. Through membership in the G-20 and other international fora, Indonesia is gaining recognition as a global force. Politics has often restrained economic progress, but recent developments give hope that even on this front, things are looking up.…

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Recession’s Impact Varies by Industry - November 18, 2009

2009-11-18 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal. Which industries are expected to fare best and worst over the near-term horizon?…

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Path to Recovery Challenging for Canada's Regions - November 11, 2009

2009-11-11 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less. Canada’s recession was indeed an imported one, and the decline in activity is so dramatic that no single province but the smallest has escaped its effects. Even so, there are differences in each province’s experience, and in the outlook for 2010.…

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Americans are Saving Again - November 4, 2009

2009-11-04 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Believe it or not, US consumers have pulled off a dramatic U-turn. Addicted to debt in the boom years, the world’s biggest consumers are pinching their pennies at a rate few thought possible just a year ago. This deleveraging process is weighing on the economy now, but paving a path to recovery.…

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10 Reasons to Reject Protectionism - October 21, 2009

2009-10-21 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Decades of multilateral effort and untold resources have been devoted to freeing up global trade flows. Enter a severe recession, and suddenly all that effort is at risk. Protectionism, the arch enemy of international trade, is in vogue again. There are at least 10 reasons to spurn the movement.…

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In Search of an Economic Engine - January 5, 2012

0000-00-00 :: Peter G. Hall
Length: 4s

Three working days into the New Year and it’s back to reality: bills to pay, an overstuffed inbox to deal with and more of the same scary world news we tried to forget over the holidays. Did the multitude of happy wishes for 2012 instil hope, or do the…

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EDC Weekly Commentary by Peter G. Hall

Export Development Canada's Vice President and Chief Economist Peter G. Hall comments on world economic trends.

EDC Weekly Commentary by Peter G. Hall


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